Newsletter
FIRM | AUSGABE 7 | 2024
Was bringt 2025? Das bleibt ungewiss. Aber – und das wissen nicht nur Risikomanager: Auch Ungewissheit lässt sich durch vorhersehbar Unvorhersehbares regeln. In diesem Sinne gilt es, sich mit dem zu beschäftigen, was ansteht. Hier hilft ein modernes, weiter gefasstes Verständnis von Risikomanagement, das nicht in Silos denkt, sondern Risiken umfassend und in ihrem Zusammenwirken betrachtet und daraus Mitigationsmaßnahmen ableitet.
So verstehen wir Risikomanagement bei FIRM und deshalb stehen für uns 2025 die großen Themen Geopolitik, Cyberrisiken, Geldwäsche und Sanktionen, Datensicherheit und künstliche Intelligenz sowie ESG auf der Agenda. Zudem setzen wir uns unter der Überschrift „Future of Regulation“ mit Themen wie Reputationsrisiken oder Liquiditätsrisiken auseinander. Wie genau, erfahren Sie in unserem Newsletter.
FIRM | Ausgabe 6 | 2024
Die Förderung von Forschung gehört zu den Kernaufgaben von FIRM. Gut 3.5 Mio. Euro hat FIRM in den letzten Jahren in Forschungsprojekte investiert, aktuell werden neun Projekte finanziert. Neu gestartet ist ein Projekt zu ESG-Risiken und der Frage, wie klimabezogene Kapitalanforderungen im Kreditrisiko-Management quantifiziert werden können. Zu zwei Projekten – „Digital Assets“ und „CO2-Verlagerung für die Klimabilanz“ – sind nun offiziell abgeschlossen, zu einem dritten – „Personalisierte Ansprache im Inkassoprozess“ – gibt es einen neuen Zwischenstand.
Alle Details zu den Projekten finden Sie im Newsletter. Die Pipeline für spannende Forschungsfragen ist übrigens weiter gut gefüllt: Fake News und Reputationsrisiken wird das nächste Thema sein, für das wir derzeit den Projektstart planen.
FIRM | Ausgabe 5 | 2024
Vordergründig schien der Sommer ruhig. Keine Veranstaltungen, kaum Round Tables, nur wenige Treffen in den Arbeitskreisen. Tatsächlich ist hinter den Kulissen sehr viel passiert. Neue Positionspapiere waren in der Mache, neue Forschungsprojekte wurden auf den Weg gebracht. Neue Mitglieder wurden ins FIRM-Netzwerk eingeführt. Lehrprogramme und Veranstaltungen mit den Universitäten wurden vorbereitet.
Jetzt sind wir startklar für den Endspurt 2024, den wir mit der Herbstkonferenz eingeleitet haben. Wir haben viele spannende Themen diskutiert: ESG, Haftungsrisiken für Manager, Cyberangriffe, Auslagerungen an IT-Drittanbieter, geopolitische Risiken und Kreditratings. Die Highlights zur Konferenz sind im aktuellen Newsletter zusammengefasst.
FIRM | ISSUE 4 | 2024
It is a special highlight every two years when we award our FIRM Research Prize. Three young researchers present their dissertations and take part in the discussion in the large plenary session. Who wins the race in the end is always exciting. This year it was Dr. Sasan Mansouri, who completed his doctorate at Goethe University and was supervised by Prof. Mark Wahrenburg.
All the exciting topics relating to the FIRM research conference are summarized in the current newsletter. These included the presentation on quantum risk, which probably opened the eyes of many to the potential dangers that the use of super-fast computers poses for the financial industry. Things are also getting uncomfortable on another front, as our focus on ESG shows: If you compare the climate policies of the EU and the US, it becomes obvious that the EU likes to regulate and the US likes to act. This costs the EU important points in global competition, as the position paper presented by the ESG Round Table shows. Investments are made where progress is made. And it must if we want to achieve the global climate targets – in the EU as well as in the USA.
FIRM | Ausgabe 3 | 2024
Förderung von Forschung und Lehre – für diesen Zweck wurde FIRM 2009 gegründet. Und diese Aufgabe ist bis heute die tragende Säule unseres Netzwerks. Die Vergabe von Forschungsgeldern und die Auslobung unseres Forschungspreises ist das, was wir bei unseren Forschungskonferenzen nach außen tragen. So auch in diesem Jahr, wenn wir am 20. Juni 2024 die Arbeiten der talentiertesten NachwuchsforscherInnen würdigen und neue Projekte an etablierte Forschungsteams vergeben.
Doch das Engagement von FIRM ist viel umfassender. So vergeben wir nicht nur Stipendien an die Studierenden von Frankfurt School und Goethe Business School. Wir suchen auch regelmäßig den direkten Austausch mit den Nachwuchskräften im Risikomanagement: bei Kaminabenden und Infoveranstaltungen, im direkten Gespräch mit den StipendiatInnen.
Mehr zu unseren Aktivitäten in Forschung und Lehre sowie ein Ausblick auf unser Positionspapier ESG – ein Vergleich der Ansätze in der EU und den USA sowie Berichte aus unseren Round Tables finden Sie im aktuellen Newsletter.
Whitepaper
Künstliche Intelligenz: Herausforderung und Chance für das Modellrisikomanagement von Banken
Von Sebastian Fritz-Morgenthal, Philipp Adamidis und Jochen Papenbrock
Die Nutzung von Künstlicher Intelligenz (KI) in Banken verspricht eine Vielzahl von Vorteilen, von der Effizienzsteigerung bis hin zur Verbesserung der Entscheidungsfindung. Gleichzeitig bringt der verstärkte Einsatz von KI-Modellen neue Herausforderungen mit sich, insbesondere im Bereich des Modellrisikomanagements.
Bisher verfolgte Strategien bedürfen einer fundamentalen Überarbeitung. Das Positionspapier beleuchtet die regulatorischen Anforderungen und Regularien der Europäischen Bankenaufsichtsbehörde (EBA), der Europäischen Zentralbank (EZB), der Bundesanstalt für Finanzdienstleistungsaufsicht (BaFin) sowie des EU AI Act. Es zeigt zudem auf, wie sich der erweiterte Einsatz von KI auf das Modellrisiko auswirkt und welche Herausforderungen aber auch insbesondere Chancen dies für das Modellrisikomanagement von Banken darstellt.
ESG – Climate risks
How the climate and energy policies of the EU and the USA affect the economy
The current position paper of the FIRM Round Table ESG examines the climate policy measures of the European Union (EU) and the United States (US) in terms of their impact on economic performance.
The authors Dr. Til Bünder and Nicholas Martin explain how the significantly more ambitious regulations in the EU will affect various economic levels, where opportunities will arise and what risks need to be considered. A comparison of the EU and US climate and energy policies shows that the US is becoming more attractive due to its direct and simple approach to promoting green investments. The EU, on the other hand, is jeopardizing its leading position in the field of green innovation and investment due to its more complex regulation and the fragmentation of financing mechanisms. It is therefore crucial that the EU continues to develop its political framework conditions in such a way that climate targets are achieved and its economic competitiveness is secured at the same time.
Asset Management
Navigating the Future: DLT and Digital Assets
in the Evolving Realm of Asset Management
Emerging technologies such as digital ledger technology (DLT) are revolutionizing numerous industries, including the asset management sector. This white paper analyzes the latest advances in the application of these technologies in asset management and provides an outlook on the digital transformation in the coming years.
The wealth management industry is increasingly using digital assets and DLT to diversify its offering and improve operational efficiency. Institutional interest in digital assets in particular is on the rise, putting them in the spotlight for various investment strategies. The commitment of industry giants such as Goldman Sachs and BlackRock underlines the importance of this trend.
This white paper examines the integration of DLT into asset management, describing the benefits as well as the potential risks. Recommendations for a successful introduction are also given. It shows how DLT can rationalize processes, reduce costs and create transparency within asset management processes, in research, trade processing and risk management.
The paper addresses key areas such as tokenization, trade settlement, risk management and the possibilities of decentralized finance (DeFi). A case study by Bankhaus Metzler on the issue and trading of native crypto fund shares under German law will also be shown. The authors provide an outlook on the impact of the integration of DLT and digital assets on the asset management industry.
Authors: Dr. Christoph Wronka, Jens Hermann Paulsen, Lars Ulbricht (all Deloitte) as well as Hendrik König and Shahrok Shedari (both Bankhaus Metzler)
Payments
Risk management and operational
resilience in payment transactions
The importance of electronic payments has increased rapidly in recent years. The reasons for this are technological innovations, advancing digitalization and modernization of the market infrastructure. For banks, the processing of account and card payment transactions therefore represents a core value chain and an important business segment.
The position paper highlights the challenges that banks currently face in payment traffic. To this end, the Round Table conducted a survey among FIRM member institutions, surveyed the status quo, and developed important internal and external recommendations for action.
Authors: Dr. Markus Ampenberger (BCG), Prof. Dr. Tobias Berg (Goethe University), Daniel Regending (Deutsche Bank)
Macroeconomics
Bracing for Impact: Analysis of the
Current
State of the Banking Industry
Uncertainty remains high following the recent bank failures of Silicon Valley Bank, Signature Bank and Credit Suisse. Is there a danger of a renewed crisis? The risk should not be underestimated, write the authors of the current FIRM position paper. According to their assessment, however, the banks are better prepared than in the financial crisis of 2007/2008.
FIRM CEO Gerold Grasshoff, together with co-author Dr. Til Bünder (BCG), has spent the last few months intensively studying the developments on the
Banking market busy. “You have to go way back to understand the context in which current developments are taking place,” Grasshoff explains. The banking sector has been fed with cheap money over the past 15 years, through low interest rates over a very long period and through quantitative easing.
Authors: Gerold Grasshoff (FIRM) and Dr. Til Bünder (BCG)
Professional Articles
Climate stress tests – where is the stress?
Many banks in Germany and Europe have greatly advanced the development and analysis of climate scenarios as part of capital planning and stress tests in recent years. These are usually based on scenarios from the Network for Greening the Financial System (NGFS) or the International Energy Agency (IEA). However, with a growing understanding of the impact channels of climate risks, it is becoming apparent that short-term and disruptive effects in particular are not adequately reflected in such scenarios, which makes it difficult to integrate the corresponding risk drivers into banks’ capital planning and adverse scenarios of the ICAAP. Advanced institutions are currently working on innovative solutions based on NGFS or alternative model approaches from which the market can learn on a broad scale in order to strengthen the integration of climate risks into bank management.
Resilience, goal achievement and sustainability in the age of transformation
The revised guidelines on internal governance of the European Banking Authority (EBA) and the guidelines on the assessment of the suitability of members of the management body and key function holders of the EBA and the European Securities and Market Authority (ESMA) have been in force since December 31, 2021.
When studying the guidelines, the need for modern governance adapted to the times of transformation becomes clear. The addressees also get a feeling for what is included in the area of governance and which regulatory requirements need to be met.
The portfolio revolution: the end of classic portfolio theory
The “Modern Portfolio Theory” developed by Harry M. Markowitz in 1952 has been the central building block of portfolio construction for decades and continues to influence our thinking on the composition of efficient portfolios to this day. The allocation models and investment strategies used by the vast majority of investors today are still based on the principles of this more than 70-year-old approach. Markowitz was consequently awarded the Nobel Prize for his outstanding work. It is therefore in no way about fundamentally questioning the model. Rather, it is a question of whether the assumptions, the mechanisms inherent in the model and the conclusions to be drawn from them stand up to scrutiny in view of the latest developments on the financial markets.
Banking study: Data blind flight looms without a strategy
When it comes to collecting and storing data, the financial industry is one of the driving forces. And for good reason, because the smart use of data will be the key to success or failure in the future. But why are banks and capital management companies still finding it so difficult to generate added value from the existing mountain of data? A recent study by VÖB-Service and the management consultancy Cofinpro provides the answers.
The financial sector of all sectors – a first mover in the IT world – has so far held back when it comes to tapping into the data economy for business purposes. In a survey of experts, we investigated the reasons and asked: Why are financial institutions not exploiting their potential? The result: there is neither a lack of money nor a lack of the required raw data. Regulatory guard rails or a lack of expertise were also not identified as the main obstacles.
IRO and ESRS – control through risk governance
IRO stands for Impacts, Risks and Opportunities.
This triad is the central basis of the European Sustainability Reporting Standards (ESRS).
In order to be able to report on the success of their sustainability activities, companies must have implemented a process for identifying, measuring and managing their impacts, opportunities and risks.
This triad also forms the basis of the materiality analysis and enables a comprehensive view of a company’s sustainability activities and the associated consequences.
Effective risk governance plays a central role here, as it links the IRO triad required for external reporting with internal corporate management.
Yearbooks
Yearbook 2024
In the FIRM Yearbook 2024, we address the current focal points in risk management. More than 50 authors have contributed to the yearbook. They write about cyber risks, cryptocurrencies, artificial intelligence and machine learning, reputation, ESG and governance as well as many other financial and non-financial risk topics. We also report on the work of our Risk Round Tables and present the most recently published position papers.
Yearbook 2023
In the FIRM Yearbook 2023, we show how the dialog between business and science succeeds in practice. With contributions from 50 authors on ESG, payments, cyber risk, artificial intelligence and much more. In addition, reports and position papers from our FIRM Risk Round Tables.
Yearbook 2022
In the FIRM Yearbook 2022, more than 50 authors from business and academia explain in their contributions and studies on ESG risks and taxonomy, cyber risks, consequences of the Corona pandemic, nonfinancial risks, and payments and artificial intelligence in banks, which developments are currently shaping risk management.
Yearbook 2021
